14, the central bank announced late
will be January 20, 2011, the raised deposit-taking financial institutions of RMB deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. This is the first time since 2011, the People's Bank raised the deposit reserve ratio, is the first since last year increased 7 times.
After this increase, major financial institutions in China deposit reserve ratio will reach 19% of the historical high, medium and small financial institutions, the deposit reserve ratio will be as high as 15.5%. Rough estimate, the increase, the central bank may be a one-time freezing of bank system liquidity of about 350 billion yuan.
HSBC economist Qu Hongbin, chief China in the interview with this reporter, said that inflation in 2011 will be the year of the upcoming economic data released in December in the CPI may drop to below 5%. But with the advent of the Spring Festival, is expected to at least the first half of this year, CPI will be re-bounced back to 5%, even up to 6%, this is because mainland China caused by excessive liquidity. He predicted that the first half of this year, China raised the deposit reserve ratio will be 200 basis points or more. Raised the deposit reserve ratio and interest rates move is likely to launch before the Spring Festival.
central bank recently released data show that full-year 2010 of RMB loans increased 7.95 trillion yuan, exceeding the 7.5 trillion yuan in early development of the scale of the new credit more than 4,000 billion yuan. Meanwhile, as of the end of 2010, 12, China's broad money supply (M2) balance up to 72.58 trillion yuan, up 19.7%, an increase of more than 17% early booking target.
At the same time, under the impulse of credit, credit in 2011 will continue to maintain high growth. It is said that commercial banks in the first week of start of the year the number of total credit, reached 500 billion yuan.
In addition, analysts believe that the formation of hedging foreign exchange to increase liquidity pressure is also an important reason for central banks rushed shot. Data show that in the fourth quarter, foreign exchange increased rapidly, only to increase the 403.318 billion yuan in December. Added last year totaled 3.26 trillion yuan, to the central bank excess liquidity has brought greater pressure. It is estimated that this year's additional foreign exchange will remain at about 4 trillion. In the central voting issue facing difficult circumstances, the deposit reserve ratio will be the norm of the tool.
Institute of Finance, the State Council Development Research Center, deputy director of Ba January 5, wrote in the media, policy adjustments the first quarter of 2011, the pressure will be very large, this pressure will continue into the second quarter . So start early intensive tightening likely, in the first quarter may raise bank reserve ratio, interest rates and exchange rates to ease price pressures.
Qu Hongbin, that as the U.S. economy improves, the Chinese decision-making should be single-minded anti-inflation. If the first half of the expected policy measures to promptly and decisively to introduce it, as the policy effects of the second half of the show, CPI inflation rate from 5% to 6% and gradually declined to the level of around 4%, inflation will be effective inhibition.
Qu Hongbin suggested the next six months, the macroeconomic policy should be single-mindedly on inflation. In addition to food prices corresponding to the individual special policy, should intensify efforts to tighten monetary policy, so monetary policy is tight in the implementation process, not the so-called sound policy. Specifically, is the quantitative tools, including the deposit reserve ratio increase, and the control of new loans will still be two major policy tool. Its role will be more direct, to tighten liquidity more direct and effective. Hike useful, but only as a secondary interest rate effect. Especially in the current quantitative easing policy of the second round of the U.S. context, the interest rate to be used frequently, interest rate increase can not be too large, excessive interest rates but will lead to more hot money inflows, and thus tightening of this part of the loans written off efforts.
for 2011, downside risks to economic growth in China, Qu Hongbin, that do not need to worry. He said the U.S. economy this year, HSBC predicted the growth would be 3.5%, higher than last year's growth rate, indicating that the U.S. economy will not be second bottom of the problem.
At the same time, domestic demand in China in 2011 and will not fade with the impact of economic stimulus and decline, because: This is the reported out of the Should be said that rising investment impulse; Secondly, more than 10 million of infrastructure projects under construction in the follow-up investment will slow down the bottom line of investment; more importantly, China's consumption potential. This economic recovery has penetrated into the labor market, given the wage income accounts for 80% of household income, which will increase household spending power. Meanwhile, with the social security and improvement of affordable housing, consumer tendency may be improved. Interest rates will bring more income to consumption helps. Thus, monetary tightening will not affect China's economy.
Qu Hongbin, stressed, in general, inflation is the main risk this year, at the policy level to whole-heartedly against inflation. Policy implementation, 赶早不赶晚, if the policy issued in a timely manner, the second half of the inflation situation will be improved. (Xu Sijia)
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inflation into the biggest worry for consumers
the confidence of the residents had a definite impact on life.
This report by the Central University of Finance, Capital University of Economics, Renmin University of China, City University of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan University Fu Jen Catholic University, have completed a survey of 2010 consumers across the Taiwan Strait and the Hong Kong and Macao Overall confidence stabilized, consumers in economic development, material life and the confidence of the employment situation more positive.
2010 fourth quarter, mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan's economic development sub-index 121.1,97.0,109.4 and 63.7, respectively. In 2010, the mainland economy maintained steady and rapid growth, China Hong Kong and Macao consumer confidence have shown a positive economic development. In particular, the mainland, there are four quarters in the three quarters of index higher than 120, showing confidence in a very positive state.
but it is worth noting that the consumer price level, the confidence of buyers and personal investment in the negative, especially in the purchase price of confidence and confidence is obviously inadequate.
survey, the fourth quarter of 2010, mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, the price sub-indices were 63.9,49.7,51.2 and 47.6, the chain were significantly decreased, revealing a very negative consumer price mentality; from the full year, mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau last year's four quarters of the price sub-index showed a downward trend, and are the lowest in the fourth quarter, indicating that consumers are growing inflation worries.
At the same time, although the confidence of residents still living at a higher level, inflation has the confidence of the residents had some impact on life. Survey data show that the fourth quarter of 2010, mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan of living sub-indices were 118.3,102.5,92.4 and 70.1. From the mainland, Hong Kong and Macao of view, compared with the previous quarter hours of life index decreased 3.4,3.0 and 4.6.
In addition, housing prices did not fall and the stock is not up to the reality that consumer confidence has suffered a serious setback. Survey, the fourth quarter of 2010, mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan were 71.0,60.8,50.9 purchase sub-index and 94.4, still show a lack of consumer confidence for buyers.
investigation found that consumer confidence and housing prices dragged down consumer confidence, the negative index is an important reason. So, faced with complex and changing environment, the economy continued to grow steadily in the context of the coming year to be effective in improving consumer confidence, reducing or even to lift consumer concerns about inflation and high prices will be the focus of efforts. (Amendment Star reporter Nguyen)
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