March 30 afternoon, Professor Wang Jian, Secretary General of China's macro economy and the telecommunications network a guest to the U.S. rate hike impact on the global economy express their opinions, Record interview follows.
Moderator: Does the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates continue to lead the United States Housing real estate bubble, the stock market bubble burst, and then on the international futures, stocks, currency markets have a major impact? economic circles to this dispute. are invited Professor Wang Jian, Secretary General of China's macroeconomic and surfers.
Moderator: March 28, the Fed announced its 15th interest rate increase, the move on the global economy and capital market, futures market will have some impact, how to look at the longest 25 years the Fed tightening cycle on the U.S. economy and the global economy, and for the related capital market, futures market, the impact of the stock market, and today are pleased to go to Secretary General of China's macro economy, national experts, Professor Wang Jian and surfers. introduce myself first, please.
Wang: We are the national development and Reform Commission, the following macroeconomic Society, we are an institution directly under the NDRC. The Institute is mainly responsible for the macro some academic activities, there are many members, including the Planning Commission, various departments, and plans for integrated management of all parts Secretary, institutions, and provincial Development and Reform Commission, in addition to some scholars, individual members, about more than two hundred members. We are all group members, only about 20 members around several scholars, the other is institutional members. < br> Moderator: Is it also to the national macroeconomic policies do provide some policy recommendations?
Wang: We have also done a lot of this work, but basically we are the unsung heroes. For example, in ; when the Society had given the State macro-economic growth to provide arrangements for the center, absorbed in our view, the central leading comrades later added a regime change. One is the economic equivalent way to shift from extensive to intensive, then system should be further from the traditional economic model to the market, then we know this is the a change the U.S. economy and the global impact of how to look?
Wang: I think the Fed's rate hike is actually a danger of the U.S. economy further increased. U.S. economy is the biggest problem is what we often said that the twin deficits , the trade deficit widening, the fiscal deficit continued to expand, these problems are actually linked. budget deficit, said the expansion is formed by the negative financial savings, and now look at not only from the U.S. government is negative savings, the residents but also the negative savings, Only companies and some savings. But the country's three main government, business, residents, two of the main savings are negative, so the economy is continuing deficiencies. have a two-gap theory of trade gap caused by inadequate savings, resulting in a trade deficit. U.S. twin deficits are growing, it must have to have a constantly replenished source of recurrent deficit, to ensure that the capital surplus.
how the surplus in the formation of it? you go to buy U.S. assets, other countries are willing to monetary forms of wealth into dollar form of wealth, the dollar would firm form of U.S. assets is greater than the rate of increase of other forms of state assets. as more U.S. assets to hedge forms a .90 into the United States of American has a concept of the new economy, stocks are particularly good, flourishing,Discount UGG boots, attracting a large flow of funds the United States, this surplus capital items has expanded, so afraid of the widening deficit. But the stock market bubble in 2000, the first Nasdaq die, from over five thousand point fell more than two thousand points, it is now the standard. followed by the 9.11 board also die, in fact, has been shown before that a delay, 9.11 after the promotion of its more substantial decline.
after the U.S. government in this A new approach to using the real estate bubble to keep the trend of rising U.S. asset prices, with so many exciting means. For example, after the 9.11 U.S. dollar interest rates continue to lower interest rates reduce the burden of housing mortgage loans to light, residents willing to buy the assets. Another is to reduce the mortgage down payment, 20% from the general said, can be reduced to 5%, or even a lot of zero down payment, even within the first five years of interest not principal, and the loan period stretched from 25 years to 30 years, can the loan limit from the past 500 million U.S. dollars, now raise 12 million U.S. dollars on the line. so many incentives lead to 9.11 after the U.S. real estate prices continued to rise. stock losses in asset prices, but real estate here they come up. so residents are wealth or value-added, so dare to spend a lot. Last year, the U.S. savings rate is negative 0.7, earn less than the money spent. real estate because he thought I value the so that the entire assets and incomes are rising, so that brought out by the wealth effect of the increase in consumer spending, the increase in consumer spending has become the United States to expand demand and stimulate economic growth in the most important driving force. now accounts for almost 80% of consumer demand, by with such a mechanism.
mortgage loans in addition to 9.11 after the United States re-engage in a lot of mortgages. and then the mortgage is what this means? for instance, is $ 300,000 to buy a house, now the real estate rose 12% per year, 13%, after a few years into a $ 500,000, I will get the bank to do a re-mortgage, rising out of the 20 million U.S. dollars, the rule of Bank of America is pledged to go out to do half and give you 10 million in loans. that the U.S. mortgage refinancing, real estate appreciation of the withdrawal to become U.S. residents device, which can come up with money from the housing growth in consumption, which is supported by the U.S. consumer in recent years an important mechanism for expansion. Now is not the value of the housing bubble a bit, and now we are discussing real estate is high risk, the stock market bubble finally burst, after ten years of broken, real estate is also coming to an end almost five years.
all from 2004 artificially high real estate began to talk too much, too much foam was blowing, so to break the U.S. economy, hurt the financial system is very powerful. how to do it? the courage to re-use to stimulate the real estate way to attract international capital flows, to maintain their own domestic economic prosperity, began to be suppressed. but also take into account if there is no capital inflow, the United States is not working day, because the recurrent deficit is increasing, from 04 6 28 dollars for the first time on interest rates 15 times now, so start plus, start plus one percentage point from 4.75 percentage points to play now. is the way to raise interest rates to attract international capital flows.
actually 04 When the end of the Fed raising interest rates five times, one is 0.25 percentage points, plus five, plus a 2.25 .2.25 this level to this level and then pull the interest rate gap between the euro. We see the second half as the dollar continue to increase in 2004 During recess time, and did not show a strong U.S. dollar, the euro because it did not form between the spread, not the spread higher than the euro. From 2005 to see the dollar go into a strong, along with the U.S. dollar, in the early 2005, when U.S. interest rates have been higher than the euro, and after that constantly raising interest rates. In 2005 only until December 1 for the first rate hike in February this year, a second rate hike. < br> as the U.S. interest rates soon, interest rates and high frequency than the euro opened the increasing spread. to hold dollar assets and euro assets held, only from holding dollars to get on the right interest rate. For the currency transactions were immediately able to see where the interests of space, and can borrow to buy the euro dollar, you can borrow yen to buy dollars, in the middle of this spread to me to be able to benefit. Although I know the dollar is very dangerous . but to do so a short term interest rate arbitrage currency trading is for me nothing much short-term risk. so see the dollar from 2005 show a strong market, the U.S. dollar against the yen, the euro is on the rise. The dollar exchange rate, a large number of forms of international capital transfer from other currencies into U.S. dollars form the results of the currency, the dollar behind the role is to constantly increase its interest rates, have such a result.
first with the U.S. stock market , bonds, after a space city, the property market to care dollars, with interest rates to prop up dollar has now become, what is different? interest rates and the use of stock and property markets to prop up the biggest difference that it is a double-edged sword, when you raise interest rates to attract substantial foreign capital arbitrage process, although a lot of pull to foreign investment, risk is inherent in your real estate, the stock market has hit. rate is certainly high on the stock market hit the real estate market is certainly is also a big hit. we see a strange situation, in 2005 this year, we have not seen the U.S. housing market decline, the U.S. housing rose 13% last year, the Dow Jones index are high, What is the logic here? In a phenomenon we saw last year, and it was Greenspan called the U.S. Treasury interest rates than those of the biennial 30-year Treasury bond interest rates higher, until now this phenomenon has not been fully completed. recent period we also saw 30-year Treasury bond interest rate levels will sometimes fall into the five-year period Under the biennium. how to interpret this phenomenon it?
Greenspan said, is phenomenon, a large number of mainly U.S. Treasury bonds held by Asian central banks. the prospects for the dollar by Asian central banks, including China, the dollar's prospects are very worrying. To avoid such losses is to a large number of short-term financial assets fall into Long-term assets, including short-term treasury bonds for the Decade following 30-year government bonds have become the national debt, a large number of buying bonds. equivalent to the U.S. Treasury market structure to change. we'll buy a long-term bonds to buy long-term U.S. Treasury prices higher the long-term high-yield bond prices came down, this is the reverse trend. during the year are so adjusted, the adjustment process is to keep the dollar from the second half of 2004 to raise interest rates, has been added to the end of the beginning of this year have not stopped, long-term U.S. interest rates have been falling instead of rising in the process, and it is Asian central banks and other central banks during the restructuring of assets are related.
last year, but the adjustment to 9 January 11th when interest rates change. in 2005 to see, from January to September or in early long-term U.S. interest rates lower in the process, but began to rise after September. It was a signal that U.S. dollar assets in Asia adjustment is basically over. Last year, there is a message that Japan is also to adjust its asset structure, more euro assets held in the month of December last year, the Japanese shot is probably a net U.S. Treasury bonds are sold more than 240 billion U.S. dollars, only China is still a lot to buy U.S. Treasury bonds. Japan has started selling Treasury bonds in the. In addition to short-term into long-term, but also do not want to be, and just to sell.
from last September We see long-term interest rates after the U.S. began to move, so that immediately affect the real estate market, there are two performance. The first long-term performance of 30-year mortgage bond prices fell, in October and September fell by 2.5 compared to about percentage points. Another is the United States S & P 500 index in the real estate sector index fell by 16% in October after the United States continue to see new home sales down housing, new home construction permit applications are down, housing prices in some places in Los Angeles, West Coast, Southwest region, prices rose past the southern region where the most powerful in the fall down now. We see the U.S. Commerce Department in February new home sales dropped by 17 percentage points. the original Economics House is not expected to fall so much. the interest rate is a double-edged sword, and you do not improve within a period of time against the real estate market is a special reason, because the U.S. national debt is very special, many foreign central bank buying. When these foreign central banks adjust the structure of his assets after the end of September last year after we see a change.
the United States is now caught in a crevice, or standing on a wire, if not increase interest rates to international capital will not come in, if interest rates, they would pierce the domestic asset bubbles. We took the dollar-denominated assets are boring, or run, it can only compare the benefits of raising interest rates more than the price of domestic assets, or the impact of major combat should be weighed against. the international capital market is an interactive, connected to each other, but also interactive. U.S. interest rates are and the euro, the yen is relatively out of the level. If the U.S. dollar interest rates, for instance Now is the neutral rate U.S. dollar interest rate increase can not, and add another 5%, do not raise rates. but you do not increase, the euro, the yen to add it? euro, the yen if the rate hike, the dollar is not international capital and interest rates ran. spread is a relative level. In the last year I wrote an article defending U.S. dollar hegemony and the end of the war. The article stresses that can save dollars in the euro, the euro can be destroyed the Asian dollar.
Why can save dollars in the euro? If tens of trillions of capital to run it, where to run it? the total size of Japanese capital that is 6 trillion, Europe and Japan are the size of capital markets the same. stay in the United States to international capital to run the euro can only be run. euro in order to save the dollar is simply printing money. This is actually between changes in supply and demand and the dollar, is holding U.S. dollars, it do not fall. But the Europeans will do this thing? Europeans consider their own thing. Why did the European Central Bank raising interest rates last year, raising interest rates again this year then? was taken in their own affairs. Now the problem in oil prices, domestic demand recovery, the recovery of economic growth, raise my prices in the euro set the upper limit of 2%, but is now over, so to raise interest rates. euros plus 0.25 percentage points, should follow the Canadian dollar, so the dollar's increase interest can be said to not stop.
I expect the euro this year, may raise interest rates four times, the beginning of time, in March there will be time later, in June, at the end of rate hikes are possible. because recently we see to Europe last year, the growth rate of broad money is about 7.8, the European Central Bank set the growth rate of broad money I probably only 4.5 to 7.8 but last year, and he believes there is a big potential inflationary pressures. European Central Bank own CD one's responsibility to ensure currency stability, in fact, staring at the rate of inflation, the inflation rate is not high. But the money made over the future there will be an inflation rate, not to say there is a rise in oil prices after inflation rate was there. The European Central Bank can not save the U.S. dollar continues to consider the issuance of currency, to increase the credibility of the euro broke down. So the euro to raise interest rates, so that U.S. can not stop.
other out of the Japanese economy is also now recovery in Japan last December, when, according to an annual rate of industrial growth would have been equivalent to 12%, 13%, and with China has had more than one, and we are now industry is now 16%. From this point of view of Japan as an indicator the recovery of economic growth is strong, and it has lasted so many years of ultra-loose monetary policy. In this month the Bank of Japan announced the end of my ultra-liberal. two means, one is meant to keep the banking system 30-35000000000000 yen position is not to be so much to reduce about 6 trillion yen, almost one sixth of the. another one I have to raise interest rates. It has recently been in discussion is from 0.01% to 0.1%, equivalent to increased ten times, but still very low, but it also is a signal. Recently the Bank of Japan announced that, after exposure to ultra-loose monetary policy, commercial banks in Japan have been impatient and took them to continue to raise interest rates on deposits, lending rates also improved, probably increased 0.5 percentage points. Japanese yen interest rates are bullish trend, the euro interest rate is also bullish trend, to see how dollars? U.S. interest rates to stop you?
the Fed will want to maintain a strong dollar to fight a war in Iran
Moderator: It is now generally agreed that the Fed went to 5.5 to coming to an end, can no longer continue to go out.
Wang: It is the euro, yen carry on pushing, I can not add people to raise interest rates, I do not add the words of international capital will soon turn around, we had to fear on the dollar, but the sake of short-term arbitrage can make money, not want to hold dollars long term. If the spreads narrow here, and I risk cost of holding dollar increased, I do not want to increase the risk of holding dollar cost, only turned out. So the yen, the euro interest rate as long as a dollar to have to raise interest rates, is not it like it or not the problem. is that the United States do not yet know it capital market interest rates increase on how strong tolerance. to 5 broken not broken? 5.25 broken not broken? 5.5 broken not broken do not know. but I guess that after the U.S. dollar is barely 5, and by that time will pierce your own property bubble there. Once the housing bubble burst, a lot of international capital will past yuan, the euro on the run, the fact that it is unstoppable. So you say that U.S. interest rates 15 times, can not stop, I that it can not stop. because of the euro, the yen interest rate so it should not stop until added to the property market bubble will pierce their own to cut interest rates by.
Moderator: I remember your last meeting with a point of view, you want to maintain a strong dollar that the United States there is a way to fight a war in Iran, this is the best way to put.
Wang: So I said that if there is such a case, as the U.S. interest rate is Japanese yen, the euro higher and higher the top of the lift, and finally added to stab the domestic property market asset bubble, we see that the property market fell sharply, it must be Iran war began. because in this case there is no means to maintain the U.S. It's stable currencies. U.S. Dollar hegemony is the embodiment of comprehensive national strength, not only economic, financial strength on the inside, as well as military strength in it. Why do I say it is the beginning of the Iranian war? from the inception of the euro, threatening U.S. hegemony is the euro, the euro was born in January 1, 1999, within ten days of the birth on the rise against the dollar, the currency against the U.S. dollar set 1:1, but within ten days to rise to 1 Euro $ 1.19, indicating when international capital is very optimistic about the prospects for the euro appears .3 22 months the Kosovo war, the war devastated the euro hit until the second half of 2003 only appeared after the strong euro against the dollar, has been to fall. or the most When tragedy only for $ 0.79 a euro, which is trading session of the moment, basically did not receive this level, but also to a level of 0.8.
then began a period of the euro's strength, followed by the war in Iraq . to fight the war in Iraq and the euro down for a while, but then again up. up after the U.S. had to use interest rates to force the solution to the. In fact I think the U.S. is the most reluctant to use interest rates to solve the balance of their current account interest rate The problem, he is really no other way. If the dollar after interest rates rise to 5, the dollar was pierce the bubble, then no way, can only be used to resolve the war. Because one is the requirement of international capital to make money, But more important is to require security. This time, we also analyzed, I also think that Iran is a war, what war is like the Iraq war, is sent hundreds of thousands of U.S. ground occupation, may also be difficult . One is the terrain of Iran, like Iraq, is not as vast flat desert is flat, but rigid foam, can also run the tank, but Iran is a plateau. all of a sudden steep between Iran and Iraq go up one kilometer altitude, In this case the U.S. military is very hard to accept, even though he accounted for in Iraq.
Iran is a military power again, is the strongest power in the Middle East, the population is more than Iraq. In this case, to fight Iran, then accounted for not much benefit. American accounted for Iraq, in fortification, put on defensive in nature. From this point of view Iran war may be in the form of bombing aircraft to bomb those nuclear facilities. But there may be to use nuclear weapons, with plenty of lean bombs to explode. Recently the British three islands in more than 20 environmental monitoring stations that now also monitored during the Gulf War in 2003 that oil-poor material wealth generated by the bomb, you get those two small nuclear bomb underground rock, it may cause millions of square meters of nuclear contamination, so that'll crushed to death in Europe, which is terrible. so the future of Europe, suddenly bleak economic future, the international capital will see in this where there is a problem.
with the Europeans do not understand the last war in Kosovo, and later see, can require the war to the Iraq war to the war, this time I am afraid not to say that along with the United States to fight Iran. as well as Russia last been seen, when in 2003 German-French alliance and Russia both inside and outside the Security Council adopted many measures in the military operations against the United States. This time we saw when the United States that sanctions against Iran, said the United States want to military action against Iran, in the beginning of February of this year, Russia sold Iran anti-aircraft missiles 30 sets of his deployment at major facilities, including nuclear facilities around. Both sides in the game, you want to make I will not let you play, you want to use the bombing way to do face to face between the direct military conflict, which is more frightening.
as we see near the end of the last Gulf War, when Russia's Pacific Fleet has been sent to the Indian Ocean, and French to his aircraft carrier was. But the real round you want to where to how to fight? last time the Kosovo war, Russia sent 200 paratroopers to the airport, the airport one, how many thousands of U.S. troops to enter, how do you do? If you hit it 200 paratroopers to that of Russia. this time we do not rule out sending peacekeeping troops in Europe will not let you fight, you fight not to fight Iran, then, is to hit me. This conflict in the U.S. and Europe together, will be affected, of course, will first affect the Europe. because it is close to playing in Europe.
Moderator: this will be the stock market, futures market, what impact?
Wang: It certainly goes without saying, we should hit the high futures. I met in the preceding talking about this issue, and now are hesitant to guard against a U.S. dollar to break the bubble, the United States to use military power to maintain its U.S. dollar currency hegemony, it is possible to generate a new conflict in the Gulf, the conflict will directly affect the supply of oil. that time is to hit the 120,130,150 U.S. dollars a barrel of oil, and no wonder that, by that time may have money can not buy. because in that place where the war to interrupt the supply of. oil supply Once the first interruption of the European economy, which is where the United States in this war can be an important factor of the euro. For China is also the same, we come to the oil from the Gulf region also accounted for nearly half of the almost, this place if there is a problem China is also greatly affected. Another point, if there is this conflict, the prospect of anyone better off.
, but such a huge international capital, if the war together, the U.S. real estate, the stock market is broken, then Europe edges affected by the war not much better, a lot of international capital have no place to go, how to do it? is estimated to impact futures market. because after all there are China, India, strong economic growth in these countries, the demand for these products is very strong physical and investment These are not it be better? people to buy anyway. U.S. real estate is not broken, blowing bubbles under the house, and I hope to have a later bought a bigger fool than I take, but by that time we all smart, not The line is, this bubble will burst. but not the same as the economy every year in China to maintain 8%, 9% of the rate of inflation, India 6%, 7%, which is still up, for oil, minerals, food, etc. demand is still very strong, in this place may be a greater chance of reaching arbitrage. So when a large number of international capital freed from the U.S. capital, to go to Europe is not very good futures that might be a turn. the future will not only impact on oil futures, may also impact on metal futures, and even the impact of agricultural futures, including grain, oil, wood, leather or are likely to be adversely affected. For us, must be mentally prepared for that.
Moderator: Commodity Futures the trend is reversed with the dollar, the dollar weakened to enhance the value of these products, as you say, once the war breaks out, the dollar becomes strong, is not it should be the reverse of what?
Wang: My view is that you hit the euro, is not able to put it crushed, and now we do not know. because it is our first two can be crushed on the situation of war to defend the U.S. dollar currency hegemony understanding is not clear. Europeans and Russia, etc. awareness of this problem is not very clear, this time they have been awakened, has been very clear to see. The purpose of the U.S. to fight Iran, the so-called Gulf War, the prospect of three is kind of how. because after all Europe, especially Russia's military power is very strong. can not say Iran war together, the dollar will be strong. dollar strong, then it has to be real estate hit, provided there is a crash. do not have a crash, as long as the cross at this level a little bit slightly down, the economy can withstand also, deep down drastic situation will certainly hands. hands results will not make a strong rebound in the dollar, the outlook is hard to say.
Moderator: Could you talk more about if this happens, the Chinese economy will have any effect?
Wang: For China, we In it first we would call the United States, Europe, to fight for the object. Europe will take us, the United States should pull us because we are bigger. We are a balance of a weight, which side which side we added power will be very strong. For example, the manufacturing recession in the United States now, if not a recession, then it will not last regular item pulled spreads over eight thousand U.S. dollars. in the war he wants to consume more resources, consume more manufactured products, will have profound impact in China. If China with the United States stand together to ensure that the needs of U.S. war material to ensure that the needs of the U.S. daily consumption, which is certainly a boon to the United States of support for American power is not to say The. On the other hand we withdraw the fire, we both do not Xiangbang, the United States can not stand.
the other hand, over one hundred billion trade deficit last year in the United States 7 Europe have more than one hundred billion U.S. dollars, if really so, then play I think that trade relations between the U.S. and Europe will also change. the United States over one hundred billion U.S. dollars surplus may be difficult to enjoy, and if the transfer to China, then, it touches on exports to China increased demand for China, we will get a chance. In short, the conflict between the U.S. and Europe to China, we now need to choose, you need to determine. of course, first we do not want the conflict, we will not take sides, we will not disclose information with the government Who is going to form an alliance, we must play an intermediary role, try not to let their conflict. In addition, we do not want this war expansion. war expansion in China no good, because our oil channel is interrupted, have limited economic growth, which is not a good thing for us. So we should strive for both sides to have a good way to resolve. But the problem does not depend on our own desire of China, we do not want to play, and they both have contradictory way, they want hands-on, we can not stop.
the U.S. economy will not decline?
Moderator: Some people worry that the U.S. economy will not collapse down? If you like what you said It's real estate bubble burst, the stock market bubble burst, the war also did not play to save the dollar and the role of the U.S. economy if you think in this case, the decline of the U.S. economy will continue, because the cause of the global economy ?
Wang: This effect is very big. This I think is a great possibility. We see that Japan has experienced a bubble. Japan is not strong powerful? world's second largest country. Why is it the early 90 of a stock market collapse of the real estate bubble than a decade the Japanese economy have get up again. bubble itself if there is a bubble that had broken the day, not always grow up, only to be blown large and never be broken bubble. When the Japanese bubble broke, the Japanese national wealth is very large, Japan's trade surplus has always been, until today.
But the U.S. trade surplus now and it? 20 years of deficit, the United States last year is a deficit in investment income from overseas the. Japanese overseas investment income until today is surplus, trade surplus has been over ten years are black, but the bubble burst, to crawl out from this pit, the business profits continue to fill the hole to go to the foam, only slow coming. the United States the first bubble is larger than Japan, the second is now even overseas investment income deficit, trade deficit is also not such a breakthrough in Japan ten years of continuous adjustment to be able to climb out of the opportunity. So the bubble to the United States broken, and certainly more frightening than Japan, its recovery time is longer. such as Japan have such a big surplus in investment income from overseas, there is such a large trade surplus, but also ten years before they crawl out of, the United States are the deficit, how is it crawl? will climb much more difficult than in Japan. unless it is desperate to use its military strength, hold his dollar hegemony, otherwise there is no way to go.
Moderator: According to your argument, because China's economy will the collapse of the U.S. economy a great loss? because the U.S. is China's main export areas?
Wang: Can not say so, the reason for China so highly dependent on the U.S. market because of our large financial surplus, the savings rate because of our too high. savings rate is too high for an important reason for economic reform in China, in breaking the big pot egalitarianism after the formation of the income distribution gap in time, we do not have time to establish a social security system, not the timely establishment of the community transfer payment system, so the original time allocation of widening income gap is not resolved when the redistribution of it. This ability to continuously improve savings, investment and continuously enhanced, but our consumption not come up. We are out with the United States singly, and what we produced, but consumer demand is not open, the United States is not out of production, consumer demand open. requires us to fill. Once the improvement of the socialist system, the spending power released, and we are not a problem. < br> Moderator: Why should the former while the introduction of income tax for luxury goods in it?
Wang: There is such a consideration, China is a country of scarce resources, and high consumption mainly for large displacement cars, consumption of too much land area of the mansion, is the limit for such products, there are factors in which it is reasonable.
Moderator: You said the U.S. economy as a problem, on the international futures commodity market is a disaster? This is a two-way , the U.S. economy on the consumption of goods is the largest.
Wang: short term disaster, long-term is good news. dollar collapse, broke down the spending power of the United States, but also spending so much oil, steel, nonferrous metals ...
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